deepbluejacket
Verified Trader,
Five years ago I tried and failed to acquire a Connor McDavid rookie card the old fashioned way - by opening packs. Not only did I fail, I failed in the most miserable way possible - by pulling the same loser Young Guns again and again and again. So this week I did what I should have done then - just buy the set and be done with it.
We've now had 5 years to assess this crop of Young Guns, and here are my personal rankings by block:
Lost and Gone Forever
Sergei Plotnikov, Henrik Samuelsson, Shane Prince, Stanislav Galiev, Ronalds Kenins, Matt O’Connor, Oscar Lindberg, Anton Slepyshev, Sergey Kalinin, Kyle Baun, Joonas Kemppainen, Connor Brickley, Hunter Shinkaruk, Michael Keranen, Alexandre Grenier, Joel Vermin
These players have already returned/moved on to Europe or have bottomed out in the low minors. Like the money you spent on them, they’re gone and not coming back. (And if they do, they won’t matter.)
Shame on You, Upper Deck
Evgeny Medvedev, Zachary Fucale, Brendan Ranford, David Musil, Petr Straka, Raman Hrabarenka, Sam Brittain
This subclass of Lost and Gone Forever is reserved for Series 2 Young Guns who didn’t play in the 2015-16 season. UD really had to scrape the barrel to find some of these guys, so much so that I’m amazed they could find a photograph. Pride of place, however, goes to Series 1 YG Evgeny Medvedev, who made his NHL debut at age 33, making a mockery of the “Young Guns” label. Shame!
Cold Coffee
Emile Poirier, Matt Puempel, Daniel Sprong, Nic Petan, Mike Condon, Antoine Bibeau, J.F. Berube, Keegan Lowe, Charles Hudon, Nikolay Goldobin, Logan Shaw, Tanner Kero, Chris Wideman, Mark Alt, Max McCormick, Taylor Leier, Garret Sparks, Brendan Gaunce, Gustav Olofsson, Anthony Stolarz, Michael McCarron, Markus Hannikainen, Tyler Randell
This group is largely residing in the AHL or has spent most of the last 5 seasons there. You might see them from time to time, but the clock has basically run out on them. The best they can hope for is bottom six/pairing duty.
Regular Joes – Jury Is In
Jordan Weal, Andrew Copp, Joel Edmundson, Nick Cousins, Jacob de la Rose, Nick Shore, Jared McCann, Slater Koekkoek, Robby Fabbri, Joonas Donskoi, Sam Bennett, Ben Hutton, Colton Parayko, Stefan Noesen, Mattias Janmark, Colin Miller, Brett Kulak, Frank Vatrano, Jujhar Khaira, Adam Pelech, Dylan DeMelo, Louis Domingue, Derek Forbort, Brady Skjei, Ryan Hartman, Vinny Hinostroza, Radek Faksa, Chandler Stephenson, Brett Pesce, Devin Shore, Nick Ritchie, Brock McGinn, Noah Hanifin
Everyone here is a bonafide NHLer, some of whom are very valuable to their teams. But they’ll never be valuable to collectors. (Sorry, defensemen.)
Irregular Joes – Jury Is Out
Max Domi, Kevin Fiala, Malcolm Subban, Josh Anderson, Jake Virtanen, Andreas Athanasiou, Juuse Saros, Linus Ullmark, Chris Driedger
Even though many of these players are now 5 years into their careers, there is still a spark alive that could bring them to the next level. Max Domi has arguably already reached that level as a top six forward with Montreal, but he took a huge step back this season. Back up goalies tend to be wild cards as well because goalies mature later and you never know when one will take off. Chris Driedger was just one step away from Lost and Gone Forever, and then had a really solid season as a back up. But the clock is ticking for everyone to make the jump to the next tier.
Stars
Connor Hellebuyck, Viktor Arvidsson, Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan Larkin, Jaccob Slavin, Shea Theodore
These are top six/top pairing guys. Being a star doesn’t mean they’ll ever be worth a ton. Slavin could win three Norris Trophies and still be a $10 guy. Hellebuyck is arguably in the next class up, and we’ll see if a Vezina win gives him the push.
Superstars
Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin, Jack Eichel
Bonafide difference makers that collectors can get behind. Rantanen and Panarin are probably undervalued due to the relatively high production of Series 1 YGs and Eichel is held back by the situation in Buffalo. But even superstars can struggle with hobby love. Ryan Getzlaf is by pretty much all measures in this same class, and he’s not worth a heck of a lot. Guys can get lost in the shadows, and there’s one guy casting a huge shadow…
Megastar
Connor McDavid
The best player in the NHL? Yeah, probably. Had it not been for COVID, he would have run up his 4th consecutive 100 point season. Had 9 points in 4 playoff games. Already worth around $600 in ungraded condition, and there’s a staggering amount of copies out there. He sucks up all the collecting oxygen around him. The only thing that can stop him is catastrophic injury…and he overcame even that last year!
I have never spent more on a single hockey card transaction than I did on this one. I can look at it one of two ways - either I bought a McDavid RC at market price and got 99 add'l young guns thrown in, or I got the McDavid at below market price and paid fair value for everyone else. Either way, I feel good about the deal and hope the seller does as well.
Mike
We've now had 5 years to assess this crop of Young Guns, and here are my personal rankings by block:
Lost and Gone Forever
Sergei Plotnikov, Henrik Samuelsson, Shane Prince, Stanislav Galiev, Ronalds Kenins, Matt O’Connor, Oscar Lindberg, Anton Slepyshev, Sergey Kalinin, Kyle Baun, Joonas Kemppainen, Connor Brickley, Hunter Shinkaruk, Michael Keranen, Alexandre Grenier, Joel Vermin
These players have already returned/moved on to Europe or have bottomed out in the low minors. Like the money you spent on them, they’re gone and not coming back. (And if they do, they won’t matter.)
Shame on You, Upper Deck
Evgeny Medvedev, Zachary Fucale, Brendan Ranford, David Musil, Petr Straka, Raman Hrabarenka, Sam Brittain
This subclass of Lost and Gone Forever is reserved for Series 2 Young Guns who didn’t play in the 2015-16 season. UD really had to scrape the barrel to find some of these guys, so much so that I’m amazed they could find a photograph. Pride of place, however, goes to Series 1 YG Evgeny Medvedev, who made his NHL debut at age 33, making a mockery of the “Young Guns” label. Shame!
Cold Coffee
Emile Poirier, Matt Puempel, Daniel Sprong, Nic Petan, Mike Condon, Antoine Bibeau, J.F. Berube, Keegan Lowe, Charles Hudon, Nikolay Goldobin, Logan Shaw, Tanner Kero, Chris Wideman, Mark Alt, Max McCormick, Taylor Leier, Garret Sparks, Brendan Gaunce, Gustav Olofsson, Anthony Stolarz, Michael McCarron, Markus Hannikainen, Tyler Randell
This group is largely residing in the AHL or has spent most of the last 5 seasons there. You might see them from time to time, but the clock has basically run out on them. The best they can hope for is bottom six/pairing duty.
Regular Joes – Jury Is In
Jordan Weal, Andrew Copp, Joel Edmundson, Nick Cousins, Jacob de la Rose, Nick Shore, Jared McCann, Slater Koekkoek, Robby Fabbri, Joonas Donskoi, Sam Bennett, Ben Hutton, Colton Parayko, Stefan Noesen, Mattias Janmark, Colin Miller, Brett Kulak, Frank Vatrano, Jujhar Khaira, Adam Pelech, Dylan DeMelo, Louis Domingue, Derek Forbort, Brady Skjei, Ryan Hartman, Vinny Hinostroza, Radek Faksa, Chandler Stephenson, Brett Pesce, Devin Shore, Nick Ritchie, Brock McGinn, Noah Hanifin
Everyone here is a bonafide NHLer, some of whom are very valuable to their teams. But they’ll never be valuable to collectors. (Sorry, defensemen.)
Irregular Joes – Jury Is Out
Max Domi, Kevin Fiala, Malcolm Subban, Josh Anderson, Jake Virtanen, Andreas Athanasiou, Juuse Saros, Linus Ullmark, Chris Driedger
Even though many of these players are now 5 years into their careers, there is still a spark alive that could bring them to the next level. Max Domi has arguably already reached that level as a top six forward with Montreal, but he took a huge step back this season. Back up goalies tend to be wild cards as well because goalies mature later and you never know when one will take off. Chris Driedger was just one step away from Lost and Gone Forever, and then had a really solid season as a back up. But the clock is ticking for everyone to make the jump to the next tier.
Stars
Connor Hellebuyck, Viktor Arvidsson, Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan Larkin, Jaccob Slavin, Shea Theodore
These are top six/top pairing guys. Being a star doesn’t mean they’ll ever be worth a ton. Slavin could win three Norris Trophies and still be a $10 guy. Hellebuyck is arguably in the next class up, and we’ll see if a Vezina win gives him the push.
Superstars
Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin, Jack Eichel
Bonafide difference makers that collectors can get behind. Rantanen and Panarin are probably undervalued due to the relatively high production of Series 1 YGs and Eichel is held back by the situation in Buffalo. But even superstars can struggle with hobby love. Ryan Getzlaf is by pretty much all measures in this same class, and he’s not worth a heck of a lot. Guys can get lost in the shadows, and there’s one guy casting a huge shadow…
Megastar
Connor McDavid
The best player in the NHL? Yeah, probably. Had it not been for COVID, he would have run up his 4th consecutive 100 point season. Had 9 points in 4 playoff games. Already worth around $600 in ungraded condition, and there’s a staggering amount of copies out there. He sucks up all the collecting oxygen around him. The only thing that can stop him is catastrophic injury…and he overcame even that last year!
I have never spent more on a single hockey card transaction than I did on this one. I can look at it one of two ways - either I bought a McDavid RC at market price and got 99 add'l young guns thrown in, or I got the McDavid at below market price and paid fair value for everyone else. Either way, I feel good about the deal and hope the seller does as well.
Mike
