Fun with Math - 2016-17 Cup Edition

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sedinfan

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Just for kicks, I went through the Cup checklist to see what one can expect to pull in a typical case... first doing the math on the overall print run it looks like there's a bit less product this year than last - roughly 2,735 cases last year versus 2,540 cases this year.

Odds of pulling an ARP x/99 are roughly 1 in 4.25 cases, or for the Auston Matthews specifically 1 in 25.5 cases.

There are so many subsets and parallels, I tried to group them together somewhat logically to give a better idea of what to expect in a case...

Virtually two-thirds (i.e. just a fraction over 24 cards) of each case will be base set, parallels, and printing plates...

9.8 Base cards
9.4 RC's
3.4 Parallels
1.5 Plates

The remaining one-third is split amongst:

The more common inserts...

2.5 Scripted Materials or Signature Materials
1.1 Trios or Quads or Sixes
1.1 Cup Foundations
1.0 Enshrinements

The somewhat rarer inserts...

0.78 Limited Logos
0.68 Exquisite ARP
0.58 Exquisite Auto Patch
0.46 Honorable Numbers

The non-serial numbered autos...

0.87 Signature Renditions
0.75 Brilliance
0.18 The Show

And a couple miscellaneous buckets...

0.83 Updates from previous years
1.08 cards from all the other smaller subsets (stuff like 2005-06 Rookie tribute, booklets, emblems of endorsements, nameplates, Property Of, Top 10 picks, etc.)
 
Great breakdown. You also have to factor in Upper Deck's notoriously bad correlation issues. Someone will probably end up with two Matthews/99 in the same box.
 
Impressive number crunching, thank you!

It quantifies and reaffirms for me what I have known forever; your chances are very slim to hit it big.
 
wow for the price its just too many base, parallels and plates and hit the better stuff will cost a fortune..
 
Let's see - in Canada a case is listed at $4,799 plus 13% HST = $5,424

Divide that by the 36 cards you'll receive in a case and the average cost comes out to a whopping $150.66 per card.

Next, take out the 13 base cards and parallels (minimal value) and the average cost for the remaining 23 cards becomes $235.83 per card.

Having never broken a case of Cup before, is this of good value?? Obviously lots of people are just fine with these numbers as it looks to sell out pretty quickly!
 
Chillychow said:
Let's see - in Canada a case is listed at $4,799 plus 13% HST = $5,424

Divide that by the 36 cards you'll receive in a case and the average cost comes out to a whopping $150.66 per card.

Next, take out the 13 base cards and parallels (minimal value) and the average cost for the remaining 23 cards becomes $235.83 per card.

Having never broken a case of Cup before, is this of good value?? Obviously lots of people are just fine with these numbers as it looks to sell out pretty quickly!
Click to expand...

The Cup is the definition of a group breaking product. Anyone opening full cases is doing for the fun factor knowing there is a very good chance they're not getting their money back.
 
I don't think my mental state could handle opening a box, let alone a case, & not getting decent value. I already know what I feel like after opening UD Ice & SPA & hitting scrubs. The buyers remorse is the worst feeling. Even group breaking Cup has become hard on wallet. Was browsing the various sites and seen Toronto was selling for $1400 in a team break. Wowzers.
 
Chillychow said:
Let's see - in Canada a case is listed at $4,799 plus 13% HST = $5,424

Divide that by the 36 cards you'll receive in a case and the average cost comes out to a whopping $150.66 per card.

Next, take out the 13 base cards and parallels (minimal value) and the average cost for the remaining 23 cards becomes $235.83 per card.

Having never broken a case of Cup before, is this of good value?? Obviously lots of people are just fine with these numbers as it looks to sell out pretty quickly!
Click to expand...

Agreed... or even worse, the vast majority of ARP's x/249 don't command much value either - you're probably beating the odds if out of the 24 base / rc / parallel / plate categories you pull 3 good cards... plus a dozen from the various other insert categories, so let's call it 15 - which means outside of the filler, the average cost is probably $300+ per card.
 
$5424 CDN a case? What the? It took a long time before McDavid cases got that high.... This seems ridiculous. Is this right?


Chillychow said:
Let's see - in Canada a case is listed at $4,799 plus 13% HST = $5,424

Divide that by the 36 cards you'll receive in a case and the average cost comes out to a whopping $150.66 per card.

Next, take out the 13 base cards and parallels (minimal value) and the average cost for the remaining 23 cards becomes $235.83 per card.

Having never broken a case of Cup before, is this of good value?? Obviously lots of people are just fine with these numbers as it looks to sell out pretty quickly!
Click to expand...
 
Chillychow said:
Let's see - in Canada a case is listed at $4,799 plus 13% HST = $5,424

Divide that by the 36 cards you'll receive in a case and the average cost comes out to a whopping $150.66 per card.

Next, take out the 13 base cards and parallels (minimal value) and the average cost for the remaining 23 cards becomes $235.83 per card.

Having never broken a case of Cup before, is this of good value?? Obviously lots of people are just fine with these numbers as it looks to sell out pretty quickly!
Click to expand...

Some eye opening numbers right here.. Wow. Makes you think.
 
I always want to try. But I usually settle for a super cheap team in a group break.
I can appreciate those with deep pockets can enjoy this stuff. It's not for me sadly.
 

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