I have no doubt in my mind that without the KHL seasons, Jagr would have passed 2k points a long time ago. If you include the time lost to lockouts, the totals would be even crazier.
Jagr recorded 19 Goals / 54 points in the 2011-12 season with the Flyers, his first when he came back from the KHL. I'm reasonably certain that's the lowest goal total / point total of his career (for a full season) but let's suggest for a moment that he could have exactly duplicated those numbers for those three years (I realize I'm low balling what he likely would have scored, but that's on purpose)
He's currently sitting at 743 Goals, and 1851 Points
An extra 57 Goals, and 162 Points onto his current total gives him:
800 Goals / 2013 Points
If you add in "lost time due to lockouts" it's not that hard to figure out the extra numbers...
He played 80 games in 93-94, and 82 in 95-96. Project his 94-95 totals over 81 games, and you'd get 54 goals & 118 Points, instead of 32/70. That's an extra 22 Goals, and 48 Points.
In the lost 04-05 Season, is it reasonable to expect he could have split the difference between his 03-04 totals, and his 05-06 totals? He put up seasons of 31/74 & 54/123. I suppose rule changes also had a lot to do with the increased scoring in 05-06... so let's just say +31/74 (identical to 03-04 totals) and low ball him again.
In 2012-13, he played 45/48 games. Let's assume he would have played 76 over the course of a full season. He'd go up to 27 Goals (instead of 16) and 59 Points (instead of 35). That's plus 11 goals & 24 points.
That's realistically another easy 64 Goals, and 146 Points. Add that to the current totals, and "hypothetical didn't go to the KHL" totals, and he'd be sitting at:
864 Goals / 2159 Points
Of course, you would also need to go back and do this for Gretzky (94-95 lockout), & Messier (94-95, 04-05... maybe he plays longer?), and Brett Hull.
He'll never catch Gretzky, and he never would have. I suspect when he (Jagr) retires, regardless of the time his missed.... he's going to finish as the 3rd all time leading goal scorer, and 2nd all time points man. 2k points are going to be hard totals to hit: He'll need to play at least two more seasons, probably 3.
He's basically there on points now (#2) and might do it before the end of the year. Goals, he's still 58 back. I think 3 more seasons and he'd get that, but if he pops 4 more this year (to give him 25) and nets 25 each of the next two seasons, he'd still be 4 back. Can he get 6 more this year, and average 27 for the next two seasons? I think that's a lot to expect.
As far as I'm concerned, he's the 3rd greatest offensive talent from the era "I grew up with" (Gretzky, Lemieux... anyone before those guys is too long ago to my "my era", and anyone from the Crosby / Ovechkin, and onward era, is too new) and he's one of the 10 greatest players to have ever put on skates.
With the three KHL seasons (Lockouts happened to everybody, so yeah, it's tough, but everyone suffered), Jags probably would have been only the second player in NHL history to break 2000 points... I don't think he'll get there now, but he does deserve to be ahead of Messier, at least in my books. So I hope he gets another year after this one... or goes on a stupid/ insane tear and does it this year...
Cory
