McDavid got #60 tonight… impact on card values?

[warsawknuckles]

So Connor McDavid potted goal #60 tonight, will this have a significant upwards impact on the price of his cards? Or will it take something else, like a deep playoff run, to make an impact?

Last year i contemplated selling my BGS 9.5 Young Guns of him that i have, didn’t think he was gonna be able to improve on what he had already done and thought that value may have plateaued… glad I didn’t.

Still wish i woulda kept the other 9.5 i had that i sold to LeafGregg back in 2016ish for $300…:badmood:

 

[Fred Bear]

So Connor McDavid potted goal #60 tonight, will this have a significant upwards impact on the price of his cards? Or will it take something else, like a deep playoff run, to make an impact

To be honest, I don't think there's much performance-wise that McDavid can do to affect his card pricing (to go up). He's already an elite player, 60 goals and nearly 2 ppg this season. A run into the playoffs may push his cards while it's happening, but I don't think it pushes it to a point where it changes the curve.

I think his price potential is more on macro-economic factors - i.e. general economy goes in a positive direction or increased demand in the hockey-card market each has a higher potential to affect his price.

McDavid is one of the few cards I probably wouldn't sell now with a plan to buy lower in 3 months...

 

[sdpdesign]

McDavid getting a Cup will affect his values more drastically. That won’t happen with his current team’s goaltending and defense. One of these days they may get the right combination to win it, but until then, markers like goal production and points will only solidify his rankings as one of the best player to ever play.

Values…his cards are some of the most sought after in the market and more prominent than Crosby, who was the previous “best bet”. As Crosby has gotten older, his production hasn’t really waned but his value has stagnated. McDavid will get to a similar point where his value won’t do anything unless he wins a cup or challenges a “never obtainable record” like Ovie…which he did both…and only gained the recognition when it came to light that he could break the goal record. Between Crosby & Ovy, they are great players who should be the best of their generation for different hockey related marks, and they are. By the stats, they are neck and neck.

When it comes to McDavid, from his class, there is no comparison. Bedard’s hype will test the strength of the McDavid market if the kid comes out hot and stays hot. If comes out like Laffy…the kid will be listed as a bust almost immediately.

 

[northendhockeynut]

This >

McDavid getting a Cup will affect his values more drastically.

100% ... winning regular season awards is nice but until he wins a Cup, his card values pretty much stay where they are

 

[Fred Bear]

This >

100% ... winning regular season awards is nice but until he wins a Cup, his card values pretty much stay where they are

I'm honestly curious as to where this belief comes from. I've collected for over 4 decades and have, quite literally, never seen a player's price go up in a meaningful, or lasting, way just from winning the Stanley Cup...

Sid Crosby has won 3 Cups, the first in 2008-09 and, then, back-to-back in 2015-16 and 2016-17, in Sept of 2016 (post-Cup #2), you could get a Crosby YG PSA 10 for $400-450, by the time they won the cup, prices were at around $1000 US. His prices remained, generally, flat for the next 3 years. During the pandemic, his prices went as high as $5000 US and currently sits around $3000 US - 3x what it was when he won his last Cup... I agree that Crosby has solidified his status as a great of the game and a guaranteed HHOFer, but what 'performance'-based metric could you point to which would lead to a 3x value increase? Would McDavid really 2x (like Crosby) his current price, $3500US, if he won a Cup?

If I've learned anything in the post-pandemic era, it's that on-ice performance, including awards, playoffs, and Cups, may give a player an overnight or bump for the month or three (looking at you Troy Terry), but hype (often starting with draft position) and macro-economic factors play a much, much larger role in the 'value' number.

 

[MMarch]

I'm honestly curious as to where this belief comes from. I've collected for over 4 decades and have, quite literally, never seen a player's price go up in a meaningful, or lasting, way just from winning the Stanley Cup...

Sid Crosby has won 3 Cups, the first in 2008-09 and, then, back-to-back in 2015-16 and 2016-17, in Sept of 2016 (post-Cup #2), you could get a Crosby YG PSA 10 for $400-450, by the time they won the cup, prices were at around $1000 US. His prices remained, generally, flat for the next 3 years. During the pandemic, his prices went as high as $5000 US and currently sits around $3000 US - 3x what it was when he won his last Cup... I agree that Crosby has solidified his status as a great of the game and a guaranteed HHOFer, but what 'performance'-based metric could you point to which would lead to a 3x value increase? Would McDavid really 2x (like Crosby) his current price, $3500US, if he won a Cup?

If I've learned anything in the post-pandemic era, it's that on-ice performance, including awards, playoffs, and Cups, may give a player an overnight or bump for the month or three (looking at you Troy Terry), but hype (often starting with draft position) and macro-economic factors play a much, much larger role in the 'value' number.

Could be wrong but didn’t the Caps cup win have a massive impact on Ovechkin cards, and it has continued now with goal record chase?

 

[Fred Bear]

Could be wrong but didn’t the Caps cup win have a massive impact on Ovechkin cards, and it has continued now with goal record chase?

Ovechkin YG PSA 10 was about $200US at the start of 16-17, won the Cup in 17-18 price had climbed to ~$400US by the start of 18-19. Pandemic hit... immediate jump to $1500, spike at nearly $7000US in December 2021, now sits around $5000US...

I would attribute fluctuations more to general market swings and macro-economics than anything Ovi has accomplished on the ice... I mean he's still moving towards Gretzky, but fell off by $2000?

 

[creasecollector]

He needs a Cup and his cards will climb even further.

Not saying what he's doing isn't great, it is. Truly awesome. But we all know he's Elite, he just needs a Cup to cement himself amongst the greats. His career points will surely speak for itself once his career is wrapped up. But until then.... enjoy the McDavid show.

 

[Bossy22]

McDavid getting a Cup will affect his values more drastically. That won’t happen with his current team’s goaltending and defense. One of these days they may get the right combination to win it, but until then, markers like goal production and points will only solidify his rankings as one of the best player to ever play.

Values…his cards are some of the most sought after in the market and more prominent than Crosby, who was the previous “best bet”. As Crosby has gotten older, his production hasn’t really waned but his value has stagnated. McDavid will get to a similar point where his value won’t do anything unless he wins a cup or challenges a “never obtainable record” like Ovie…which he did both…and only gained the recognition when it came to light that he could break the goal record. Between Crosby & Ovy, they are great players who should be the best of their generation for different hockey related marks, and they are. By the stats, they are neck and neck.

When it comes to McDavid, from his class, there is no comparison. Bedard’s hype will test the strength of the McDavid market if the kid comes out hot and stays hot. If comes out like Laffy…the kid will be listed as a bust almost immediately.

I love comments like this! (No disrespect meant). Oilers are the 2nd best teams since Christmas! Skinner is a legit #1! They may not win the cup but they have to be a top 4 favourite especially with how hard it will be to get out of the East!!!

 

[junyab]

I'm honestly curious as to where this belief comes from. I've collected for over 4 decades and have, quite literally, never seen a player's price go up in a meaningful, or lasting, way just from winning the Stanley Cup...

Sid Crosby has won 3 Cups, the first in 2008-09 and, then, back-to-back in 2015-16 and 2016-17, in Sept of 2016 (post-Cup #2), you could get a Crosby YG PSA 10 for $400-450, by the time they won the cup, prices were at around $1000 US. His prices remained, generally, flat for the next 3 years. During the pandemic, his prices went as high as $5000 US and currently sits around $3000 US - 3x what it was when he won his last Cup... I agree that Crosby has solidified his status as a great of the game and a guaranteed HHOFer, but what 'performance'-based metric could you point to which would lead to a 3x value increase? Would McDavid really 2x (like Crosby) his current price, $3500US, if he won a Cup?

If I've learned anything in the post-pandemic era, it's that on-ice performance, including awards, playoffs, and Cups, may give a player an overnight or bump for the month or three (looking at you Troy Terry), but hype (often starting with draft position) and macro-economic factors play a much, much larger role in the 'value' number.

I disagree - Ovechkin's YG had a very significant increase after his cup and him approaching the all-time goals record.

 

[quincy]

I disagree - Ovechkin's YG had a very significant increase after his cup and him approaching the all-time goals record.

Echo this.

I think McDavid's prices are relatively stable at the moment, even with his relentless point scoring. That said: if he can tally 70 goals, that's significant and would likely translate into another price bump. We haven't seen a 70 goal scorer since Selanne and Mogilny in 92-3. THIRTY YEARS ago. McDavid crossing that plateau would definitely bring some market heat.

 

[Fred Bear]

I disagree - Ovechkin's YG had a very significant increase after his cup and him approaching the all-time goals record.

Belief vs. Data/Fact I guess...

Here's the data from PSA that I was looking at. It's from 2016-current here... A PSA 10 Ovi YG was selling, generally, $250-300 with a couple spikes at $350-400 in March 2018 ahead of the playoffs (was $200-250 pretty much 2016-2018 ahead of that). When the playoffs started, the PSA 10 was $350-450... they won the Cup on 6/7 with sales continuing through the summer in that same $350-450 window... with lows below $300... The data just does not show that winning the Cup had an effect on his pricing. The graph is basically flat with an upwards trend.

Now move on to him chasing Gretzky... here are three other graphs to consider - Crosby, McDavid, and Gretzky (OPC PSA 7).

The peak on all 4 graphs is Jan/Feb 2021, so I'm pretty confident that is a market shift since you really can't point to a common 'performance' metric for these 4 players. Ovechkin is the only one who sees another significant rise - His pricing goes from ~$5k to nearly $9k from Sept. 2021 - Dec 2021. Since then, it has fallen back to $5k. This, roughly, corresponds to him breaking into the top 5 all-time in goals. The fall-off begins when he settles into 3rd all-time. He hits a low at just below $4k and then goes back up to $5k after he passes 800 goals and Mr. Hockey for 2nd all-time, still $4k below his 'peak' in back in December 2021.

While I agree that there was 'hype' surrounding Ovi 'beginning' to seriously chase Gretzky, it didn't last or create a lasting price increase based on the data (he's at the same $5k he was when the market spiked in Jan/Feb 2021). I'm also not ruling out that his pricing could go back to it's peaks when/if he passes Gretzky. I also won't rule out newer 'investo-llectors' moving the needle on McDavid in the event he wins a Cup. History says it's a good time to sell, though, take some profits and buy it back after the hype-train leaves the station...

 

[junyab]

From end of 2019 to today the Ovi has gone from roughly $500 to roughly $5k, while the Crosby had an increase from $1k to $3k, that is what I was referring to. But not beginning with the Cup as I thought.