NHL Draft Lottery Simulator

That would be tough because even if you have a high draft pick, it doesn't mean that the player will be good enough to turn a franchise around. Plus there are some weak draft years too. Yakupov's year was pretty weak, although they should have picked a d.

Draisaitl was a pretty high pick (3rd), and same with Nurse (7th). Eberle (22nd) was the last pick they had outside of the top 10.

But getting one lottery pick isn't good enough to say "good enough, your re-build is done". A team needs probably 3 decent high draft picks to be on the fast track to a re-build.

The problem with Edm, is that they've had 7 years of top 10 picks (6 years in top 7, 4 first overall). Eberle was 22nd 8 years ago (and it wasn't their own pick - see below regarding Penner), and the year previously, Edm drafted Sam Gagner 6th overall and had 2 other 1st round picks in 2007 (15th and 21st).

Edmonton isn't trying tank, they are legitimately bad, and bad for a decade, despite having top picks. Their previous rebuild was done wrong. You build from the back end out, have vets to show rookies how to be a pro and the young players have to earn their spot on the the top 6. It was handed to them. They're thinking "that was easy!!"

When the team is so bad that RNH instantly is the #1C (because there are no vets), and rushes him into the NHL at 165 lbs soaking wet. Then you reward him with a 6 year $36M contract at age 21 for a bunch of average seasons as a #1C, what sort of bad precedence are you setting.

When Eberle, Hall, RNH all got long term $6M/yr second contract deals, what went through Yakupov's head since he was drafted #1 overall? Ka-ching.

My buddy put it best: Edmonton rewarded mediocrity. Team mediocrity. They rewarded individual performance and draft position. And we all know that it's a team sport, so something is amiss if the individual has good stats, but the team isn't any better.

Pronger didn't help either by bolting Edmonton. Made it the least desirable team to play for in the NHL, so the UFA market ran dry. The GM had to overpay to attract players, UFA and over priced RFA offer sheets. Heatley refusing didn't help either. Blowing a 1st (12th overall) and 2nd for Penner was bad. Signings like Nylander, Souray, Nikitin, Fayne, etc. were just plain stupid.

It's just bad management, and it'll take years to sort it all out. Pretty much after Eberle, Hall, RNH, and Yakupov have been moved out.
 
Yeah, but as of today, the Oilers are last... Toronto should be there, but as usual, they can't even lose/ tank properly. Hopefully their balls drop better this year than last...

...and yes, that sounds way dirtier than it was intended.

Cory
 
Yeah, but as of today, the Oilers are last... Toronto should be there, but as usual, they can't even lose/ tank properly
Cory

As of today the Leafs have 63 points and the Oilers have 65. How are the Oilers last? Don't despair Leafs fans, you're still last! :goal:
 
Points percentage.Leafs have 3 or 4 games in hand
on the Oilers.

Are Toronto fans now using baseball-style percentages in hockey? In hockey if you have less points that the second last team ... YOU'RE LAST!! :)

Oilers aren't even second last, Winnipeg is behind them even. Winnipeg??? Wow who saw them in the running for the first overall pick when the season started. Not me.
 
Are Toronto fans now using baseball-style percentages in hockey? In hockey if you have less points that the second last team ... YOU'RE LAST!! :)

Oilers aren't even second last, Winnipeg is behind them even. Winnipeg??? Wow who saw them in the running for the first overall pick when the season started. Not me.

Hey man,I don't make the rules.
 
Hey man,I don't make the rules.

haha ... yes I see that the draft lottery page maker guy has teams listed by Points %. Winning percentage only applies to teams that are tied in points, no? Winning percentage is a little deceiving ... even if the Leafs do tie the Oil in points they'll likely lose the tie breaker based on ROW so that's not factored in. I have faith that the Leafs will finish in last!

However, finishing last only gives you a 20% chance at the 1st overall pick. There's an 80% chance it won't be that team, which is very likely. So it will be a true lottery (or moreso than in past years).
 
Same odds for the 1st pick as last year. Lower odds than in previous years.

No guarantee this year of at least the 2nd pick if you finish last, which is what happened in the Sabres case last year. This year if you finish last you have to "win" either 1st, 2nd or 3rd. If you don't win it then you pick 4th.

With the odds of 20% / 22% / 25% for the last place team to win a top-three pick there is a very good chance that team will not be selecting in the top 3. Which sounds strange to say but you can't argue with math. Unless you're Gary Bettman, whose math seems to always find a way for certain teams to get certain stuff (*cough* PittsburgPenguinsSidneyCrosby*cough*)

My bet is that the Coyotes "win" the 1st pick this year. Just a hunch.
 
At this point, you have to use winning percentage due to the uneven number of games played.

If a team has 5 wins and 4 losses (all in regulation) and another team has 4 wins and 2 OT losses, that team is considered to be in first place because they have games in hand.

It works in reverse too. Edmonton is 10 games below .500, Toronto 9, Winnipeg 8, Columbus 6, Vancouver, Calgary and Buffalo 5.

Thus, Edmonton is last in the league at this particular moment.

The ROW comes into play if multiple teams have the same number of games below .500. I'll cover that in my annual 'What each game means' thread on the last day of the season.

HOWEVER, because the eastern US can't handle a little bit of snow, I believe there are two games scheduled for the Sunday this year instead of everyone finishing on the Saturday.
 
Leafs back in last place. I ran it at least 20 times before the Leafs won first pick:curse: Buffalo and Columbus kept winning, Boston even won once.
 
Maybe the hockey gods will shine on the Sabres this year. Really hoping the Leafs get first choice but not the end of the world if they don't. Some nice looking young talent in this draft, some kids that will certainly be stars for many years.
 
If the Oilers win on Saturday - they cannot be 30th - If tied with Toronto, Toronto will be based on less regulation/overtime wins than Edmonton
 
Ran it a bunch of times
Team1st2nd3rdTop 3
Arizona Coyotes2 3 5 10
Vancouver Canucks2 1 1 4
Winnipeg Jets2 0 1 3
Toronto Maple Leafs1 2 0 3
Columbus Blue Jackets1 2 0 3
Edmonton Oilers1 1 3 5
Calgary Flames1 0 1 2
Colorado Avalanche1 0 0 1
New Jersey Devils1 0 0 1
Buffalo Sabres0 2 1 3
Montreal Canadiens0 1 0 1
 

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